Volume 23, Issue 3 (12-2025)
RBS 2025, 23(3): 533-544 |
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Saadati M, Bagheri A. Analyzing the Risk of Divorce among Divorced Women with Children Using Time-Dependent Cox Model. RBS 2025; 23 (3) :533-544
URL: http://rbs.mui.ac.ir/article-1-1917-en.html
URL: http://rbs.mui.ac.ir/article-1-1917-en.html
1- Associate professor of biostatistics, Statistical methods and demographic modeling department, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran.
2- Associate professor of applied statistics, Statistical methods and demographic modeling department, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran. ,abagheri_000@yahoo.com
2- Associate professor of applied statistics, Statistical methods and demographic modeling department, National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran. ,
Abstract: (17 Views)
Aim and Background: Divorce is one of the harms that has various personal, psychological and social dimensions and severely affects children. Therefore, studies in this field are always of interest to researchers and policymakers in the field of family. The aim of the present study is to investigate the variables affecting the risk of divorce among divorced women with children.
Methods and Materials: In this study, 756 divorced women with children were selected, based on the first wave of the National Civil Registration Organization's divorce survey project in 2017-2018. To study the effect of selected covariates on the divorce risk of these women, Proportional Hazard and time-dependent variable Cox models were fitted to data and analyzed using Spss22.
Findings: The median of first marriages survival for divorced women with children was estimated as 175 months (±7.36 months), the highest percentage of divorced women had only one child (57.7%), and the mean age of their first child was 13.1 years. The results of fitting the time-dependent Cox model to the data showed that changes in the human development index, number of siblings, years of education, marriage age, years of father’s education, father’s living status, spouse’s marriage age, spouse’s mother years of education, and the first child age had a significant effect on divorce risk for these women; the women’s first child age had the most effect on these women’s risk of divorce (HR= 1.576).
Conclusions: By increasing the human development index, women and their spouse marriage age, their father’s years of education, their spouse mother’s years of education, and the first child age, the divorce risk of these women increases, on the other hand, by increasing women’s years of education and the number of siblings, their divorce risk decreases. Also, the risk of divorce for women whose father is alive is higher than those whose father was death.
Methods and Materials: In this study, 756 divorced women with children were selected, based on the first wave of the National Civil Registration Organization's divorce survey project in 2017-2018. To study the effect of selected covariates on the divorce risk of these women, Proportional Hazard and time-dependent variable Cox models were fitted to data and analyzed using Spss22.
Findings: The median of first marriages survival for divorced women with children was estimated as 175 months (±7.36 months), the highest percentage of divorced women had only one child (57.7%), and the mean age of their first child was 13.1 years. The results of fitting the time-dependent Cox model to the data showed that changes in the human development index, number of siblings, years of education, marriage age, years of father’s education, father’s living status, spouse’s marriage age, spouse’s mother years of education, and the first child age had a significant effect on divorce risk for these women; the women’s first child age had the most effect on these women’s risk of divorce (HR= 1.576).
Conclusions: By increasing the human development index, women and their spouse marriage age, their father’s years of education, their spouse mother’s years of education, and the first child age, the divorce risk of these women increases, on the other hand, by increasing women’s years of education and the number of siblings, their divorce risk decreases. Also, the risk of divorce for women whose father is alive is higher than those whose father was death.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
General
Received: 2025/04/10 | Accepted: 2026/01/2 | Published: 2025/12/1
Received: 2025/04/10 | Accepted: 2026/01/2 | Published: 2025/12/1
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